iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (SGOV)

[PERSONAL] ⏱ 3 min read

T-Bill Yield Arbitrage: SGOV at 4.25% Triggers $48B Household Deposit Outflow From 0.45% Bank Accounts

2026-11-06, FP360 — Retail households pulled $48.2 billion from commercial bank checking and savings accounts over the past 30 days, rotating into 0–3 Month US Treasury Bill ETFs (SGOV, BIL) yielding 4.25% to capture a 380-basis-point spread over the 0.45% national average savings rate.

⚡ LONG 0-3M T-BILLS (SGOV 4.25%) — 380 bps yield spread over commercial bank deposits + state tax exemption drives structural household cash migration.

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

5s30s Steepens to 168bps as Long Bond Groans Under $2.1T Deficit Glut

2026-11-06, FP360 — The 5s30s yield spread widened to 168 basis points, its steepest since 2023, as the Treasury's refunding announcement confirmed $125 billion in long-duration supply against a $2.1 trillion deficit, forcing dealers to absorb duration they don't want.

⚡ Bear steepener in 5s30s is a fiscal risk premium repricing, not a growth signal—own duration only when the 30-year yield pushes above 5.25%.

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

Polymarket Volume Surges to $10: US Default Odds Priced at 1.5% for 2027

2026-11-06, FP360 — Polymarket's 'US defaults on debt by 2027' contract saw $10 in 24-hour volume, holding implied probability at 1.5% as traders dismiss tail risk despite $36 trillion debt and elevated yields. The thin liquidity underscores low conviction in a crisis scenario, but even a 1.5% probability implies a $400 billion expected loss if realized. The market's verdict: default is a tail risk, not a base case, keeping Treasury yields anchored.

⚡ Market-implied default probability of 1.5% remains contained, supporting risk assets and steepening curve bets.

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

2s10s Curve Steepens +45bps to +3.1σ, Term Premium Repricing Threatens High-Duration Assets

2026-11-04, FP360 — The 2s10s Treasury yield curve steepened to +45 bps, a +3.1σ outlier, as term premium repriced across duration benchmarks. The move compresses multiples for high-duration growth assets and tech equities while forcing institutional duration hedges.

⚡ DURATION SQUEEZE

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

2s10s Curve Steepens to +45bps as 10Y Yield Hits 0.49%, Term Premium Reprices

2026-11-02, FP360 — The 2s10s US Treasury yield curve steepened to +45 bps, a +3.1σ outlier, as the 10Y benchmark yield dropped to 0.49% amid aggressive term premium repricing.

⚡ DURATION SQUEEZE

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 5.19% as Term Premium Repricing and $58B Coupon Supply Pressure Long Duration

2026-11-05, FP360 — The benchmark US 10-Year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.19% on Wednesday as primary dealers absorbed $58 billion in new coupon issuance and the ACM term premium widened to +64 bps, pressuring mortgage rates and long-duration equities.

⚡ SHORT DURATION / STEEPENER BIAS — Heavy Treasury coupon supply and +64 bps term premium keep upward pressure on 10Y yields at 5.19%.

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

30-Year Auction Concessions Deepen as Primary Dealer Inventory Swells to $32B

2026-10-31, FP360 — Thursday's $24B 30-year auction cleared at 4.92% with a 2.1bp tail, the fourth consecutive long-bond concession, as primary dealers absorbed $32B in unsold supply — the highest since March. The culprit: a $48B TGA cash build and cautious foreign bidding, forcing dealers to warehouse duration they can't hedge cheaply.

⚡ Bearish duration: dealers are trapped long and will likely cheapen the long-end further to offload inventory.

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

2s10s Curve Steepens to +45 bps as Term Premium Reprices, Squeezing Duration

2026-10-31, FP360 — The 2s10s US Treasury curve steepened +45 bps, hitting a +3.1σ outlier as the 10Y benchmark settled at 0.49%. Term premium decompression is forcing multiple compression across high-duration assets.

⚡ DURATION SQUEEZE

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

5s30s Yield Spread Blows Out to 128bp as Long-End Fiscal Risk Premium Gets Repriced

2026-10-30, FP360 — The 5-year/30-year Treasury spread steepened to 128 basis points Friday, its widest since 2023, as the long bond yield pushed to 5.28% while the 5-year held at 4.00%—a pure term-premium repricing driven by $1.9 trillion in projected 2027 deficits and shrinking foreign official demand, forcing investors to demand more compensation for holding duration.

⚡ Bearish duration: the long end is pricing fiscal dominance, so any rally in the 30-year is a selling opportunity until term premium peaks.

[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read

Foreign Central Banks Pull $48B from US Custody, But the Dollar Bid Refuses to Die

2026-10-30, FP360 — Foreign central banks yanked $48 billion from US custody accounts in the week ending October 28, the largest weekly drain since March 2023, yet the dollar index held 107.8 and 10-year yields slipped to 4.92%. The paradox: reserve managers are selling Treasuries for diversification and sanction-proofing, not dumping dollars—creating a structural bid for short-term custodial dollar liquidity.

⚡ Custody outflows are a diversification story, not a dollar- dumping story—the buck stays bid at the front end even as long-end selling pressure builds.