[COMMODITIES] ⏱ 3 MIN READ • 2026-10-24 02:05:44 UTC JSON API [RAW]

Colombia Coal Blockades Trigger Force Majeure; European Thermal Coal Jumps 12%

2026-10-24, FP360 — Colombia's Cerrejón and La Loma coal mines halted operations after illegal blockades spread to key rail lines, forcing force majeure declarations and cutting 30% of global seaborne thermal coal supply. European API2 coal futures spiked 12% to $168/tonne as utilities scrambled for alternative supply, with analysts warning of a winter stockout risk.

⚡ EXECUTIVE 30-SECOND INVESTOR MATRIX

🎯 THE SIGNAL

Supply shock in thermal coal is bullish for API2 futures and coal miners, but bearish for European utilities reliant on Colombian coal.

📈 BULLISH VECTORS

European thermal coal futures (API2) and diversified miners like Glencore and Anglo American benefit from higher prices and increased demand for alternative supply.

📉 BEARISH VECTORS

European utilities with low coal stockpiles face margin squeeze and potential credit rating downgrades; coal-importing countries like Turkey and Israel face higher power costs.

⚠️ PRIMARY RISK TRIGGER: Prolonged blockades could push API2 above $200/tonne, triggering gas-to-coal switching and a spike in European power prices, with potential government intervention.

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Why Is Gold Price Dropping? Not Today: Coal Is the Story Gold prices are under pressure today, down 0.8% to $4,010/oz, as rising real yields (10Y TIPS at 2.20%) and a stronger dollar (DXY at 105.8) weigh on the metal. But the real action is in coal: Colombia's illegal blockades have knocked out 30% of global seaborne thermal coal supply, sending API2 futures up 12% to $168/tonne.

Why Is Gold Price Rising? Safe-Haven Demand vs. Coal Supply Shock Gold's safe-haven appeal is being offset by the coal supply shock, which is stoking inflation fears and supporting industrial commodities. Investors are rotating from gold into coal equities and futures, with the API2 curve in steep backwardation ($168 spot vs. $145 12-month).

Colombia's Coal Blockades: Force Majeure and Supply Impact Cerrejón, Colombia's largest coal mine (30 million tonnes/year), declared force majeure on October 22 after illegal blockades by local communities halted rail transport to the Puerto Bolívar port. The blockades have spread to other mines, including La Loma and Calenturitas, taking an estimated 1.2 million tonnes per week off the market. Colombia accounts for 8% of global seaborne thermal coal exports, and the loss is particularly acute for European utilities, which rely on Colombian coal for 25% of their imports.

Market Reaction: API2 Futures Surge, European Utilities Under Pressure European API2 coal futures for November delivery jumped 12% to $168/tonne, the highest since February 2025, on volume of 15,000 lots (vs. 5,000 average). The spike is exacerbating Europe's energy crunch: German baseload power for Q1 2027 rose 8% to €180/MWh, and utility stocks slumped (RWE -4%, Uniper -6%). With European coal stockpiles at 45 days of consumption (vs. 60-day average), the market is pricing a 40% chance of API2 hitting $200/tonne by December, according to options data.

Gold Price Today: Per Gram and Per Ounce Gold spot price today is $4,010/oz, equivalent to $128.9 per gram. In India, gold price today is ₹6,450 per gram (24k), while in the USA, gold price today is $4,010 per ounce. Costco gold bar prices are $4,050 per ounce, reflecting a 1% premium.