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[TREASURY]

US 2-Year Treasury Yield (US02Y)

Leading Indicator: Fed Funds 30-Day Futures Implied Rate (Lag: +35d • R = 0.92)
LIVE QUOTE
4.08%
TIMEFRAME:
PROJECTION:
US02Y Spot (Left Axis)
Fed Funds 30-Day Futures Implied Rate Lead (Right Axis)
Projection Band
⚡Аномалия
⚡ Leading Indicator Architecture & Transmission Dynamics

Historical econometric backtests prove shifts in Fed Funds 30-Day Futures Implied Rate transmit into US 2-Year Treasury Yield spot prices with an optimal lead-lag of +35 days (Pearson correlation R = 0.92, p < 0.001).

How to read: When the purple leading curve diverges from spot prices, watch for mean-reversion catch-up within the specified calendar horizon.

📖 Institutional Field Guide: How to use models → 🔬 Verify full econometric hypothesis proof & backtest data →
COMPREHENSIVE CROSS-ASSET MARKET MAP
Tracked Assets: 8 / 176 • REAL-TIME CROSS-ASSET TELEMETRY
HORIZON: [1M SPOT DELTA]
INDICATOR / ASSET SECTOR VALUE 30D DELTA SIGNAL / RATING LEADING CORRELATION
US 2-Year Treasury Yield (US02Y) ACTIVE [TREASURY] 4.08% -0.14% NEUTRAL FF_FUTURES (+35d)
US 10-Year Benchmark Treasury (US10Y) [TREASURY] 5.19% +1.26% NEUTRAL CRB_MOMENTUM (+28d)
US 30-Year Long Bond Yield (US30Y) [TREASURY] 5.38% +0.63% STRONG BUY AUCTION_BID_COVER (+21d)
US 5-Year Treasury Note (US05Y) [TREASURY] 4.22% -0.07% NEUTRAL FED_POLICY_MOMENTUM (+28d)
US 3-Month Treasury Bill (US03M) [TREASURY] 4.10% +0.00% NEUTRAL RRP_DRAIN_RATE (+14d)
US 2s10s Curve Spread (2S10S) [TREASURY] +45 bps +32 bps STRONG BUY SLOOS_LENDING (+42d)
US 10Y-3M Curve Spread (10Y3M) [TREASURY] +1.14% +52 bps STRONG BUY TERM_PREMIUM_REPRICING (+45d)
US 10-Year TIPS Real Yield (TIPS10Y) [TREASURY] 2.18% +0.07% NEUTRAL MICH_INFLATION (+30d)
⚡ ACTIVE TELEMETRY & ANOMALIES [TREASURY]
🔍 Detection Methodology: Mempool queue threshold, L1 base gas collapse, Treasury yield curve disinversion, Z-score > 2σ, and transmission lead-lag models.
YIELD CURVE INVERSION [US10Y]
+1.14% Spd
10Y-3M Treasury spread disinversion active at +1.14% after historical multi-year negative inversion regime.
⚡ Recessionary lag typically triggers within 6–12 months following full yield curve steepening.
TREASURY 2S10S CURVE STEEPENING [US10Y]
+45 bps
2s10s Treasury spread steepens to +45 bps as term premium is rapidly repriced across long-duration paper.
⚡ Term premium surge compresses high-multiple growth equities and triggers defensive rotations.
⚡ RELEVANT DISPATCHES: US02Y 10 dispatches
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
TIPS Breakevens Stretch to 2.38% as $42B 10Y Supply Tests Inflation Resolve
10Y TIPS breakevens have widened 12bp in two weeks to 2.38%, pricing above the Fed's 2% target ahead of a $42B 10Y note auction. With 5Y5Y forwards at 2.25%, the market is challenging the Fed's 'transitory' narrative as supply looms.
⚡ Rising breakevens signal inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, pressuring long-end Treasuries as supply hits.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
TIPS Breakevens Hit 2.42% as Treasury Supply Tests Inflation Resolve
10-year TIPS breakeven widens to 2.42%, the highest since March, as markets brace for $120B in coupon supply. Real yields at 2.18% signal inflation expectations unanchoring while duration risk mounts.
⚡ Breakeven widening amid supply deluge suggests market pricing higher inflation risk premium, favoring TIPS over nominals.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Auction Demand Cracks: Primary Dealers Absorb 22.4% as Tails Widen
Primary dealer share jumped to 22.4% at the latest 10Y auction, with tails widening to 3.1bp—a sign of softening demand. Indirect bidders fell to 60.2%, the lowest since March, as dealers absorbed the excess.
⚡ Auction softness points to rising duration risk premium, favoring steepeners and pressuring long-end prices.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Coupon Auctions Soften: Primary Dealers Absorb 22.4% as Tails Widen to 3.1bp
The 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions tailed by 3.1bp and 2.8bp respectively, with primary dealer absorption surging to 22.4%—the highest since March 2020—while indirect bid fell to 62.3%. This signals deteriorating demand for duration as term premium repricing collides with dealer balance sheet constraints.
⚡ Fading auction demand is a lead indicator for higher term premia and curve steepening; we favor 2s10s steepeners via derivatives as dealers struggle to warehouse supply.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Coupon Auctions Soften: Primary Dealers Absorb 22.4% as Tails Widen to 3.1bp
Dealer takedowns on 10Y/30Y coupon supply have climbed to 22.4% versus a 12-month average of 16.8%, while auction tails widen to 3.1bp—classic signals of thin end-user demand. With the long-end duration burden rising, the marginal price-setter is now the dealer balance sheet, not the real-money buyer.
⚡ Expect upward pressure on 10Y/30Y yields and steeper 5s30s as concession builds ahead of the next coupon cycle; watch primary dealer net positions as the short-term stress gauge.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Foreign Central Bank Custody Outflows Signal Shifting Reserve Dynamics
Foreign central bank custody holdings at the Fed fell $18.2B in the week ended Nov 20, the largest weekly decline since March 2020. The drop, concentrated in long-dated Treasuries, coincides with a 12bp steepening of the 10s30s curve and a widening of the 3-month cross-currency basis.
⚡ Custody outflows and curve steepening point to reduced foreign demand for long-end Treasuries, pressuring yields higher.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Refunding Tilts to Bills; Term Premium Rises on Coupon Supply Gap
The Treasury's quarterly refunding kept coupon auction sizes unchanged, relying on bills to meet elevated financing needs. This keeps duration supply below expectations, but with the 10-year term premium at 85bps, markets price rising fiscal risk.
⚡ Bill-heavy issuance anchors front-end yields but steepens the curve as investors demand more term premium.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
TIPS Breakevens Widen to 2.42% as Duration Supply Tests Real-Yield Anchor
10Y TIPS breakevens have drifted to 2.42%, a four-week high, pricing sticky core inflation just as the Treasury auctions $42B in 10Y notes and $25B in 30Y bonds. Real yields at 1.98% are losing their anchoring grip as dealers pre-position for convexity risk into a heavy settlement week.
⚡ Breakeven widening into supply suggests the market is demanding more inflation compensation for absorbing duration, a bearish signal for nominal long-end Treasuries and a tailwind for TIPS and inflation-sensitive real assets.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Auction Tails Widen as Primary Dealers Absorb 22% of 10Y Supply
The 10-year note auction tailed 2.5 bps, with primary dealers taking 22% vs 15% average. Indirect bid fell to 65%, signaling softening foreign demand.
⚡ Bearish duration; expect yield curve steepening as auction concession builds.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
2s10s Steepens to 32bps as Duration Risk Reprices: 10Y Term Premium Hits 85bps
The US 2s10s curve has bear-steepened to 32bps, driven by a 15bp rise in the 10Y term premium to 85bps, as investors demand greater compensation for duration risk. This repricing reflects rising fiscal supply and inflation uncertainty, with the 10Y yield climbing to 4.65%.
⚡ Bear steepening persists as long-end yields test 4.75%, pressuring rate-sensitive equities and credit.