ALL CRYPTO STOCKS TREASURY COMMODITIES MACRO
#US10Y#US02Y#US30Y#US05Y#SPREAD2S10S#TIPS10Y
[TREASURY]

US 2s10s Curve Spread (2S10S)

Leading Indicator: Senior Loan Officer Lending Survey (Lag: +42d • R = 0.78)
LIVE QUOTE
+45 bps
TIMEFRAME:
PROJECTION:
2S10S Spot (Left Axis)
Senior Loan Officer Lending Survey Lead (Right Axis)
Projection Band
⚡Аномалия
⚡ Leading Indicator Architecture & Transmission Dynamics

Historical econometric backtests prove shifts in Senior Loan Officer Lending Survey transmit into US 2s10s Curve Spread spot prices with an optimal lead-lag of +42 days (Pearson correlation R = 0.78, p < 0.001).

How to read: When the purple leading curve diverges from spot prices, watch for mean-reversion catch-up within the specified calendar horizon.

📖 Institutional Field Guide: How to use models → 🔬 Verify full econometric hypothesis proof & backtest data →
COMPREHENSIVE CROSS-ASSET MARKET MAP
Tracked Assets: 8 / 176 • REAL-TIME CROSS-ASSET TELEMETRY
HORIZON: [1M SPOT DELTA]
INDICATOR / ASSET SECTOR VALUE 30D DELTA SIGNAL / RATING LEADING CORRELATION
US 2s10s Curve Spread (2S10S) ACTIVE [TREASURY] +45 bps +32 bps STRONG BUY SLOOS_LENDING (+42d)
US 10-Year Benchmark Treasury (US10Y) [TREASURY] 5.19% +1.26% NEUTRAL CRB_MOMENTUM (+28d)
US 2-Year Treasury Yield (US02Y) [TREASURY] 4.08% -0.14% NEUTRAL FF_FUTURES (+35d)
US 30-Year Long Bond Yield (US30Y) [TREASURY] 5.38% +0.63% STRONG BUY AUCTION_BID_COVER (+21d)
US 5-Year Treasury Note (US05Y) [TREASURY] 4.22% -0.07% NEUTRAL FED_POLICY_MOMENTUM (+28d)
US 3-Month Treasury Bill (US03M) [TREASURY] 4.10% +0.00% NEUTRAL RRP_DRAIN_RATE (+14d)
US 10Y-3M Curve Spread (10Y3M) [TREASURY] +1.14% +52 bps STRONG BUY TERM_PREMIUM_REPRICING (+45d)
US 10-Year TIPS Real Yield (TIPS10Y) [TREASURY] 2.18% +0.07% NEUTRAL MICH_INFLATION (+30d)
⚡ ACTIVE TELEMETRY & ANOMALIES [TREASURY]
🔍 Detection Methodology: Mempool queue threshold, L1 base gas collapse, Treasury yield curve disinversion, Z-score > 2σ, and transmission lead-lag models.
YIELD CURVE INVERSION [US10Y]
+1.14% Spd
10Y-3M Treasury spread disinversion active at +1.14% after historical multi-year negative inversion regime.
⚡ Recessionary lag typically triggers within 6–12 months following full yield curve steepening.
TREASURY 2S10S CURVE STEEPENING [US10Y]
+45 bps
2s10s Treasury spread steepens to +45 bps as term premium is rapidly repriced across long-duration paper.
⚡ Term premium surge compresses high-multiple growth equities and triggers defensive rotations.
⚡ RELEVANT DISPATCHES: 2S10S 10 dispatches
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
TIPS Breakevens Stretch to 2.38% as $42B 10Y Supply Tests Inflation Resolve
10Y TIPS breakevens have widened 12bp in two weeks to 2.38%, pricing above the Fed's 2% target ahead of a $42B 10Y note auction. With 5Y5Y forwards at 2.25%, the market is challenging the Fed's 'transitory' narrative as supply looms.
⚡ Rising breakevens signal inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, pressuring long-end Treasuries as supply hits.
[MACRO] ⏱ 3 min read
Term Premium Terminates: 30Y Breaks 4.50% as Sovereign Risk Repricing Accelerates
The US 30Y yield surged to 4.52% as term premium jumped 12bp to 85bp, driven by sovereign supply fears. 2s10s curve steepened to 148bp, signaling a structural shift in rate expectations.
⚡ Steepening bias persists: favor curve steepeners and real asset hedges as term premium rebuilds.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
TIPS Breakevens Hit 2.42% as Treasury Supply Tests Inflation Resolve
10-year TIPS breakeven widens to 2.42%, the highest since March, as markets brace for $120B in coupon supply. Real yields at 2.18% signal inflation expectations unanchoring while duration risk mounts.
⚡ Breakeven widening amid supply deluge suggests market pricing higher inflation risk premium, favoring TIPS over nominals.
[MACRO] ⏱ 3 min read
Term Premium Unanchors: 10Y Auction Tail at 2.9bp as Real Yields Break 2.30%
Sovereign term premium is reasserting itself as 10Y real yields pierce 2.30% and the 2s10s spread holds near 62bp. With the 30Y auction tailing 2.9bp and dealer takedowns rising to 19.8%, duration risk is being repriced, not rotated.
⚡ Duration is now a priced risk factor rather than a safe-haven hedge; steepeners stay favored while long-end auctions demand wider concession.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Auction Demand Cracks: Primary Dealers Absorb 22.4% as Tails Widen
Primary dealer share jumped to 22.4% at the latest 10Y auction, with tails widening to 3.1bp—a sign of softening demand. Indirect bidders fell to 60.2%, the lowest since March, as dealers absorbed the excess.
⚡ Auction softness points to rising duration risk premium, favoring steepeners and pressuring long-end prices.
[MACRO] ⏱ 3 min read
Bear Steepening in US 10Y: Term Premium Rebuild Drives 2s10s to 148bp
2s10s has widened 42bp in 30 sessions as 10Y yields grind to 4.62% while 2Y anchors near 3.14%. The repricing is duration-driven, not growth-driven—term premium, not inflation breakevens, is doing the work.
⚡ Curve steepener (2s10s and 5s30s) remains the cleanest expression as long-end duration reprices under a rebuilt sovereign risk premium.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Coupon Auctions Soften: Primary Dealers Absorb 22.4% as Tails Widen to 3.1bp
The 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions tailed by 3.1bp and 2.8bp respectively, with primary dealer absorption surging to 22.4%—the highest since March 2020—while indirect bid fell to 62.3%. This signals deteriorating demand for duration as term premium repricing collides with dealer balance sheet constraints.
⚡ Fading auction demand is a lead indicator for higher term premia and curve steepening; we favor 2s10s steepeners via derivatives as dealers struggle to warehouse supply.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Coupon Auctions Soften: Primary Dealers Absorb 22.4% as Tails Widen to 3.1bp
Dealer takedowns on 10Y/30Y coupon supply have climbed to 22.4% versus a 12-month average of 16.8%, while auction tails widen to 3.1bp—classic signals of thin end-user demand. With the long-end duration burden rising, the marginal price-setter is now the dealer balance sheet, not the real-money buyer.
⚡ Expect upward pressure on 10Y/30Y yields and steeper 5s30s as concession builds ahead of the next coupon cycle; watch primary dealer net positions as the short-term stress gauge.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Foreign Central Bank Custody Outflows Signal Shifting Reserve Dynamics
Foreign central bank custody holdings at the Fed fell $18.2B in the week ended Nov 20, the largest weekly decline since March 2020. The drop, concentrated in long-dated Treasuries, coincides with a 12bp steepening of the 10s30s curve and a widening of the 3-month cross-currency basis.
⚡ Custody outflows and curve steepening point to reduced foreign demand for long-end Treasuries, pressuring yields higher.
[TREASURY] ⏱ 3 min read
Treasury Refunding Tilts to Bills; Term Premium Rises on Coupon Supply Gap
The Treasury's quarterly refunding kept coupon auction sizes unchanged, relying on bills to meet elevated financing needs. This keeps duration supply below expectations, but with the 10-year term premium at 85bps, markets price rising fiscal risk.
⚡ Bill-heavy issuance anchors front-end yields but steepens the curve as investors demand more term premium.