{"status":"ok","article":{"id":295,"slug":"nickel-spikes-12-as-morowali-floods-halt-40-of-global-npi-ou-mvnucbe4","title":"Nickel Spikes 12% as Morowali Floods Halt 40% of Global NPI Output; LME Stocks Drain","category":"commodities","lead":"2026-10-25, FP360 — Nickel prices surged 12% to $26,850/tonne as catastrophic flooding in Indonesia's Morowali industrial park forced the shutdown of 70 of 120 NPI lines, knocking out 10% of global supply. LME inventories plunged 18% in two weeks to 28,500 tonnes, their lowest since 2022, while the cash-3M spread flipped to a $450 backwardation, signaling immediate physical scarcity.","signal":"Nickel's supply shock is intensifying, with the backwardation and stock drawdown pointing to further upside before Indonesian output normalizes.","signal_short":"Nickel's supply shock is intensifying, with the backwardation and stock drawdown pointing to further upside before Indonesian output normalizes.","signal_score":91,"bullish_case":"Nickel miners outside Indonesia (e.g., Australia, Canada) and NPI producers with spare capacity benefit from elevated prices; stainless steel producers with inventory buffers gain pricing power.","bearish_case":"Stainless steel mills face margin compression as raw material costs surge; EV battery makers exposed to nickel-intensive chemistries see cost inflation.","risk_factor":"A swift resolution of flooding and rapid resumption of Morowali operations could reverse the rally; demand destruction from high prices may cap upside.","content":"## Why Is the Stock Market Down Today? Nickel Shock Adds to Inflation Fears\n\nU.S. equity futures fell 0.6% pre-market as the nickel price spike reignited inflation concerns, pushing 10-year Treasury yields up 8 basis points to 4.72% and pressuring growth stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 220 points at the open, with materials and industrial sectors leading losses.\n\n## Nickel Price Surge: LME Stocks Plummet as Morowali Floods Worsen\n\nIndonesia's Morowali industrial park, which accounts for 40% of global nickel pig iron (NPI) output, remained submerged after record rainfall, with 70 of 120 production lines halted. The LME cash-3M spread flipped to a $450 backwardation from a $120 contango a month ago, signaling acute physical tightness. LME inventories plunged 18% in two weeks to 28,500 tonnes, the lowest since 2022, while cancelled warrants surged to 45% of stocks, indicating further drawdowns ahead. The three-month nickel contract on the LME settled at $26,850/tonne, up 12% on the week, the biggest weekly gain since March 2022.\n\n## The Stock Market Today News: Nickel Rally Weighs on Industrials as Inflation Fears Mount\n\nIn today's stock market news, nickel's 12% weekly gain is adding to inflationary pressures, with the 10-year breakeven rate rising to 2.45%. The S&P 500 materials sector fell 1.2%, while stainless steel producers like Outokumpu and Acerinox dropped over 4% on margin concerns. The dollar strengthened 0.4%, further pressuring commodities. Meanwhile, gold held steady at $4,039/oz as investors sought inflation hedges.\n\n## The Stock Market Today Up or Down? Nickel Supply Shock Threatens Fed's Rate Path\n\nWith nickel now up 28% year-to-date, the risk of a broader commodity rally is complicating the Fed's disinflation narrative. Markets are pricing a 72% probability of a December rate cut, down from 92% a week ago, according to FedWatch. The VIX rose to 18.5, reflecting heightened uncertainty. If nickel prices remain elevated, the Fed may delay easing, further pressuring equities.","image_url":"https://im.runware.ai/image/os/a07dlim3/ws/3/ii/71c0eb48-8e42-423e-8c5d-4eccc172a9db.webp","meta_description":"2026-10-25, FP360 — Nickel prices surged 12% to $26,850/tonne as catastrophic flooding in Indonesia's Morowali industrial park forced the shutdown of 70 of 120 ","seo_title":"Nickel Spikes 12% as Morowali Floods Halt 40% of Global NPI Output; LME Stocks Drain","seo_keywords":"nickel price, LME nickel, Morowali flooding, NPI output, Indonesia nickel, stock market today, nickel stocks, commodity inflation","tags":["#Nickel","#Indonesia","#LME","#SupplyShock","#Stocks","#Inflation"],"data_metrics":{"nickel_price":"$26,850/tonne","weekly_change":"+12%","lme_inventory":"28,500 tonnes","backwardation":"$450","npi_output_halted":"40%","Search Intent":"why is the stock market down today"},"data_provenance":null,"source_trend":"Nickel Price Spikes 12% as Indonesia's Morowali Flooding Halts 40% of Global NPI Output, Triggering LME Stock Drawdown","engine_source":"TRENDS","is_pinned":0,"read_time":3,"status":"published","views":0,"created_at":"2026-10-25 13:05:47"}}